When the savvy bubble bursts: Ending NZ’s love affair with sauvignon blanc

Jules van Costello, The Spinoff | November 26, 2020

New Zealand’s wine industry built its name on sav, but we’ve been putting all our eggs in one basket for too long, writes Jules van Costello.

Savvy represents 63% of New Zealand’s area under vine, 74% of our wine production and a whopping 88% of our exports by volume, meaning for every dozen bottles of wine we export, over 10 of those are sauvignon blanc. Photo: Getty Images
Savvy represents 63% of New Zealand’s area under vine, 74% of our wine production and a whopping 88% of our exports by volume, meaning for every dozen bottles of wine we export, over 10 of those are sauvignon blanc. Photo: Getty Images

I like to think of sauvignon blanc as the IPA of wine. It’s brash, bombastic and a little bit basic (in a good way). Like IPA, its tropical aromas of guava, passionfruit, lemongrass and a little bit of sweat jump forth from the glass. In the words of wine educator Oz Clark: “There had never before been a wine that crackled and spat its flavours at you from the glass”. It should not be surprising that some of the flavours in savvies and IPAs are the same – New Zealand’s most acclaimed hop variety, Nelson Sauvin, is named for its olfactory similarity to Marlborough sauvignon blanc.

Savvy is easy to understand and even easier to like. In the world of wine, which has a tendency to disempower consumers by letting so-called “experts” hoard knowledge, this is unequivocally a good thing.

Sauvignon blanc put New Zealand on the map. It is the foundation on which the entire export side of our wine industry has been built. But sadly, there can be too much of a good thing. While writing my new book, Beyond the Vines: The Changing Landscape of New Zealand Wine, I’ve had to wrestle with the fact that while sauvignon blanc is amazing, the New Zealand wine industry has too many eggs in one basket. It represents 63% of New Zealand’s area under vine, 74% of our wine production and a whopping 88% of our exports by volume, meaning for every dozen bottles of wine we export, over 10 of those are sauvignon blanc.

In August 2020, New Zealand Winegrowers released their annual report which stated that, despite six months of Covid-19 affecting sales, we’d actually exported more wine than ever before. Big grocery brands have done incredibly well but many smaller producers are feeling the pinch. The smaller the producer, the more likely they are to be selling wine in restaurants, which is hard when restaurants are shut or diners are too scared to go out. Secondary lockdowns in Melbourne, London and even in Auckland,  as well as the huge mishandling of Covid in our biggest markets – the USA and UK – have had profoundly negative effects for many Kiwi producers.

New Zealand, the forward-thinking upstart that it is, committed to free trade in the mid-1980s. We are an export economy and from my position, this has generally helped us do business. However, one of the consequences of this is that no industry is too big to fail. Our producers, unlike those in Europe, for instance, cannot rely on government intervention to keep them afloat if the arse drops out of the market.

Ripening white grapes at a vineyard in Marlborough Region, country's largest winegrowing region with distinctive soils and climatic conditions, South Island of New Zealand. Photo: Getty Images
Ripening white grapes at a vineyard in Marlborough Region, country’s largest winegrowing region with distinctive soils and climatic conditions, South Island of New Zealand. Photo: Getty Images

Sauvignon blanc is popular now across the globe, but what happens when the bubble bursts? We could face a quick trend shift à la Sideways that saw merlot’s demise, or even a sudden global event change how the wine world works overnight. Most of the players who are making big bucks on industrial sauvignon blanc will not care. They will move onto something else. The growers and the wineries will be hurting. The wine world is a slow-moving beast, but it is also a fickle one. At this stage, New Zealand does not have an exit strategy.

Savvy is important – we can make relatively high-quality juice relatively cheaply. This is what got us into this problem in the first place. But we can also make world-class wine all over New Zealand. We need to champion more serious styles of sauvignon blanc, which we excel at.

We also need to diversify, and quickly. Despite having over 55 commercial varieties being grown, land devoted to most varieties has been dwindling (all but sauvignon blanc, of course, pinot noir, pinot gris and syrah).

I myself am heavily invested in the natural and lo-fi wine game with my businesses Cult Wine and Te Aro Wine but, strangely enough, I do not think this is the saviour of the industry, nor is making more and more serious wine. We need to find something we can make relatively cheaply, well, and for which there is an international demand.

I believe light red wines are part of the answer to the problem of the sav bubble – Montepulciano from Italy, St Lauren from Austria and Gamay are all contenders. In Australia, these light reds have taken off domestically and are making waves internationally. Like sav, we can make affordable pinot relatively well so there is no reason why we cannot apply these skills to grape varieties that are a little easier to grow. I happen to like drinking light reds but this is one solution that should also suit consumers in Australia, USA and the growing Chinese market.

We also need to experiment, throw grapes at the wall to see what sticks. The bubble will pop. We need to be ready.

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USA biggest wine market as French drinkers cut down

french-drinkers1
Monica Edwards shops for wine at Central Market in Shoreline, May 29, 2012. REUTERS/Anthony Bolante/Files

PARIS | BY SYBILLE DE LA HAMAIDE

The United States became the world’s biggest market for wine last year, beating France into second place for the first time as consumption slides in the country long seen as its natural home and Americans develop a greater taste for it.

U.S. consumers ‎bought 29.1 million hectoliters of wine in 2013, a rise of 0.5 percent on 2012, while French consumption fell nearly 7 percent to 28.1 million hectolitres, the International Vine and Wine organization OIV said on Tuesday.

U.S. drinkers are, however, still way behind in terms of consumption per head.

According to per capita figures that date from 2011, the average French person still gets through almost 1.2 bottles a week, about six times more than the average American. Nevertheless, the downward trend in consumption through recent years is fairly dramatic in Europe’s wine-drinking heartlands.

“In countries such as France, Italy and Spain, people used to drink a lot of wine, but consumption habits are changing,” OIV director general Jean-Marie Aurand ‎said on the sidelines of a news conference in Paris.

“We drink less wine by volume, more quality wine. And there is also competition from other drinks such as beer.”

“In the U.S., it is different, and they are starting from a lower level per capita, so they have a tendency to consume more and more, notably quality wine,” he said.

A wine bottle is seen on display in a cellar at the winery of Vassilis Panagiotou in the city of Markopoulo, east of Athens October 12, 2013.  REUTERS/John Kolesidis
A wine bottle is seen on display in a cellar at the winery of Vassilis Panagiotou in the city of Markopoulo, east of Athens October 12, 2013. REUTERS/John Kolesidis

France, the world’s third largest wine producer behind Italy and Spain, saw its consumption per capita fall more than 20 percent between 2002 and 2011 to 46.4 liters per year, he said.

Over the same period, U.S. consumers raised their consumption by nearly 17 percent to 9.1 liters per person per year.

The OIV said the sharp fall on the French wine market last year was exaggerated by an adjustment in its statistical data.

WORLD TRADE DROPS BUT PRICES RISE

The Paris-based organization estimated last year’s wine consumption in China down 3.8 percent to 16.8 million hectolitres after a rapid growth over the past 10 years, but Aurand played down the fall, saying this was likely due to large stocks built up in the previous years.

Without official Chinese data, OIV calculates consumption by adding estimated output and imports minus small exports.

Overall, world wine consumption last year fell by 1 percent to 239 million hectoliters after four years of near stability.

“The long-awaited recovery that will mark the end of the financial crisis, which began in 2008, is still to take place,” Aurand said.

World wine production last year rose 9.4 percent to‎ 279 million hectoliters ‎helped by record output in Spain, Chile, South Africa and New Zealand, the OIV said.

International trade in wine fell 2.2 percent by volume to 98 million hectoliters, but higher average prices in 2013 led to a 1.5 percent rise in sales to 25.7 billion euros ($35.4 billion).

French exports shed 3 percent by volume, mainly due to low 2012 output, keeping the country behind Italy and Spain in the ranking of world wine exporters, but it remained the world’s top wine exporter in value at 7.8 billion euros ahead of its two main competitors.

“Things should move a different way in 2014 when you look at 2013 output, especially for Spain, which has a record harvest,” Aurand said.

For 2014, the OIV warned of a likely sharp fall in output in the southern hemisphere due to adverse weather conditions.

Initial estimates pointed to a fall of 20 percent in output in Argentina compared to 2013 and a drop of 10 to 20 percent in Chile after last year’s hefty production. Australian production could also fall slightly, the OIV said.

Overall output in the main countries of the southern hemisphere, also including South Africa, Brazil, New Zealand and Uruguay, could fall to between 49 to 53 million hectoliters this year, down 10 percent on 2013, the OIV said.

(Editing by Andrew Callus and David Evans)

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